Description

This analysis provides a forecast of KAS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-06 0.123854 0.137622 0.151852 0.167625 0.184587 0.202247 0.221990
2024-10-13 0.102894 0.123346 0.145642 0.171609 0.200876 0.232697 0.269766
2024-10-20 0.087160 0.111874 0.140116 0.174433 0.214646 0.259928 0.314408
2024-10-27 0.075102 0.102598 0.135377 0.176703 0.226760 0.284788 0.356459
2024-11-03 0.070751 0.101712 0.139901 0.189467 0.251057 0.324037 0.415953
2024-11-10 0.062044 0.094150 0.135185 0.190051 0.259994 0.344687 0.453405
2024-11-17 0.055797 0.088991 0.132811 0.192970 0.271394 0.368147 0.494367
2024-11-24 0.049707 0.083308 0.129100 0.193590 0.279463 0.387271 0.530033
2024-12-01 0.047829 0.083322 0.132894 0.204069 0.300357 0.422812 0.586753
2024-12-08 0.046089 0.083294 0.136469 0.214195 0.320885 0.458166 0.643777
2024-12-15 0.041886 0.079089 0.133727 0.215271 0.329087 0.477501 0.680410
2024-12-22 0.037176 0.073604 0.128684 0.212706 0.332030 0.489773 0.707895
2024-12-29 0.035785 0.073560 0.131990 0.222641 0.353090 0.527329 0.770318
2025-01-05 0.033321 0.071530 0.132188 0.228101 0.368170 0.557407 0.823785
2025-01-12 0.030678 0.068917 0.131281 0.231822 0.380843 0.584487 0.873810
2025-01-19 0.028126 0.066177 0.129938 0.234726 0.392316 0.610069 0.922212
2025-01-26 0.028336 0.068506 0.136886 0.250511 0.422809 0.662381 1.007528
2025-02-02 0.025698 0.065178 0.134256 0.251249 0.431178 0.684036 1.051428
2025-02-09 0.023816 0.063093 0.133530 0.254849 0.443755 0.711692 1.103853
2025-02-16 0.021651 0.060178 0.131149 0.255615 0.451985 0.733237 1.148057
2025-02-23 0.021518 0.061462 0.136160 0.268487 0.478777 0.781576 1.230052
2025-03-02 0.021313 0.062554 0.140839 0.280893 0.505045 0.829485 1.311968
2025-03-09 0.019588 0.060116 0.138939 0.282210 0.514116 0.852559 1.359109